Two Sports Betting Examples: New England at Buffalo and Minnesota at Seattle

look at this first game, New England at Buffalo.starting QB. Sometimes these types of things
The analysis of this game was 100% correct.can't be accounted for. Here's the complete
When you read the analysis, notice how theanalysis:
important stats were accurate, and how theMinnesota is on the road and has been struggling
overall perception of the game was correct:on offense, scoring only 2 TD's in their last 16
New England - 5 1/2 at Buffaloquarters. They're going to continue to struggle in
I know everybody's first reaction is to go for theSeattle against the Seahawks under-appreciated
home dogs, especially in a game like this thatdefense. The Seahawks are always tough at
looks like a revenge game. But when you look ahome, even back in the days when they were a
little closer at the Bills, you will see how bad theybad team. Now that they're a Super Bowl
really are.contender, they're that much tougher.
In their last two games the Bills have beenHere's some interesting numbers... The Vikings are
outgained 745-387 in total yards, and in their lastonly 7-16 ATS as a non-division road dog, and are
16 games, they've managed to score over 17on an 0-9 run ATS on the road against the NFC
points just 4 times. New England is on a 7-1 ATSWest. The Vikes are also on a 3-7 run ATS when
run as road favorite, and 16-6 ATS run as agetting 7 points or less. What's worse is that
division favorite. Further, the Patriots are on athey're only 2-8 SU in these same games. In this
18-4 run ATS coming off games giving up 10day and age of parity in the NFL, how can the
points or less. New England is also on a 12-6-2Vikings consistently lose so many games that are
ATS run against the Bills. NE is also on a 7-3 ATSsupposed to be close match-ups? Because they're
run in their last ten games when favored by lessover-rated. The public perception of how good
than 6 points. This tells me that the public hasthe Vikes are comes a lot from their solid home
been underestimating the methodical, star-lessfield advantage, which won't mean a thing when
Pats.they're playing 2000 miles away in Seattle.
If that's not enough stats for you, take a look atHere's another interesting stat... in Seattle's last 12
this nugget of information... NE is 16-2 ATS in theirgames, the home team is 10-1-1 ATS. Here again
2nd games of the season against Buffalo. Why?the public's perceptions are influenced by how well
Because NE is a much better team and the BillsSeattle plays at home.
might be able to surprise them the firt timeFinally, let's forget all the numbers for a second.
around. By the 2nd game, Buffalo has no moreNobody playing in the game is going to care what
tricks up their sleeve, and they're usually alreadythey did ATS or SU. They're going to be focused
out of contention.on the guy across from the ball. Seattle is a FAR
Bottom line, NE is looking like they're determinedbetter team than the Vikes. Let's not
to get back to the Super Bowl. They'll dominateover-complicate this. Barring unforseen turn-overs,
the line of scrimmage, and control the tempo of82-yard punt returns, and phantom penalties (like
the game. Look for the Pats to come out on topin the Super Bowl) the smart money,
in this one, 31-17high-percentage play is Seattle, -6 1/2.
Minnesota at Seattle -6 1/2What to learn from this? Keep in mind that sports
The second game was Minnesota at Seattle. Thebetting is always about the law of averages.
analysis of this game was 100% wrong! WhatWinning is caused by only playing the high
happened here was that Minnesota reversed thepercentage games and not taking uneducated
way they were playing, and Seattle lost theirrisks.